Sure, the controversy over Foie Gras rages on – and some cities continue to work to ban it – but no matter your position on Foie Gras, this video helps to communicate a broader message. The message I took from this video (and some of the recent Food Documentaries) is that our modern day approaches to making food and nature better are flawed. The message is that, more often than not, food tastes better when the chef works to help nature shine through the food rather than wrestling and forcing his will on the food. Many indicators point to a modern day consumer that seeks more authenticity in the food, to better understand where they food came from and the story behind that (see Celebrity Chef trend), and a return to more natural foods that better respect the earlier agricultural systems before there were patented (Frankenstein versions of) soy beans and molecular manipulations of our foods. While you’re still more likely to see fructose corn syrup be in far more plentiful supply than actual fruits at McDonald’s and other mass-feeders, there is strong indication of a shift in our desired relationship with food.

Hope you will also visit my blog post on Food Industry Evolution.

Celebrity status will move one link further up the food chain and the Celebrity Chef will soon share the limelight with a new genre of celebrity; the Celebrity Farmer.

There is more food programming on television than ever before in history. Consumers around the world are fascinated by the real life world of the restaurant industry. Food documentaries such as Food Inc. and Forks Over Knives have also played a part in growing the consumer appetite for knowledge about not just how their food is prepared, but where it comes from and who grows it.

The first of what will likely be many Celebrity Farmers is the outspoken and charismatic Joel Salatin of Polyface Farms. Salatin is easily the most recognized of all of the thousands of farmers that supply Chipotle. Chipotle as many know was the top performing restaurant stock of 2010 with 170% growth; attributed largely to their strong restaurant branding rooted in the concept of “Food with Integrity”. It is hard to say who has benefited more from the relationship between Salatin and Chipotle. Both are becoming recognized as industry leaders but from different links within the overall food chain. One thing is for certain though, this relationship and public support of their views on food marks the genesis of what will be a long new food industry trend – the rise of the Celebrity Farmer.

Look close and you will find that many menu trends start out in major metro markets and in fine dining, but they eventually make their way all the way down the spectrum to fast food restaurants and impact main stream American dining behavior. If you want to spot restaurant menu trends early, look at what they are doing in fine dining restaurants and you will often get a glimpse at a trend that will spread across the whole industry in 5-7 years time. Take organic foods, for example. That wasn’t something you’d expect to see in McDonald’s if you went back in time 5-7 years. Organic has long been at the root of celebrated restaurants like The Herbfarm in Seattle, but that was hardly the place you would look for a trend that would later be found in McDonald’s promotional campaigns. Organic has gone from the kind of thing you would only find in fine dining restaurants or hippie compounds to now being one of the fastest growing food segments in the world.

Another example is to look at the new sea salt fries at Wendy’s. Sea salts were all the rage just a few years ago and many fine dining restaurants even offered an assortment or variety of artisan sea salts. There are lots of examples of this notion of fine dining offering a glimpse of the future. I’m not suggesting this is the only place for restaurant industry trend-spotters to look, but certainly it is one fertile source. What’s working today in fine dining can’t immediately be transported into a mainstream QSR or fast casual concept, but it can often be put up on the whiteboard for those restaurant chains with the foresight to look years out in their efforts to remain innovative segment leaders (in QSR, fast casual and even casual dining).

Another place to look for a number of emerging trends that will reshape menus around the world is the hit documentary Food, Inc. If you are in restaurant menu planning, marketing, culinary development or can influence the direction of a large restaurant chain, you will certainly find the movie compelling and find courage to make bold improvements to your menu. Even if you have nothing to do with the restaurant industry except for eating out, you will find this film and a number of other recent food documentaries fascinating.

One of the biggest movements in the food industry that will greatly impact restaurant trends in the future is the rise of powerful food documentaries. The popular and groundbreaking “Food Inc.” made a major impact on millions of American’s and the way we look at food. The consciousness around where our food comes from, how nutrition effects our bodies, and a rapidly increasing concern for what we put in our bodies will undoubtedly change restaurant menus of the future.

The newest movie to come on to the scene, “Forks Over Knives“, was already featured on Oprah; and as we all know, Oprah is the oracle of emerging trends that will go mainstream, and is herself a hit-maker. Forks Over Knives is part of a succession of moving food documentaries that are beginning to have a real impact on consumer dining behavior and consumption. There is no question that the way we look at food will forever be different. Not just because of these powerful food documentaries, but because of the issues they uncover which will be impossible to ignore in the future (such as the global food shortage crisis, future farming and responses such as “Urban Farming“, chronic malnutrition, and the billions of dollars spent on fighting diseases which can best be cured with food rather than medicine.

Food Matters is a highly recommended film. I hope you will watch it with your family tonight and share with all of your co-workers. It will change the way you eat for the better and, as a result, bend the food industry practices in a direction which can best help heal our bodies and world.

Urban Farming: a new way to feed the world?
The way we eat has changed more in the past 50 years than in the previous 5,000 years. There has been a hockey-stick curve away from the traditional agricultural system that we were used for so long – we’ve gone from an agrarian economy where most of the food we ate was grown within 2 miles of our homes (or right out the back door) to today, where the food we eat travels an average of 1,500 miles before reaching our dinner plates.

We are paying a price for the convenience of our modern food system. More than 1/5 of the fossil fuel consumed in the world is used for agriculture – everything from fertilizing the fields to fueling the harvesters, to storing, processing and transporting the food to market and to the grocery store. As fossil fuel supplies become scarcer in the coming decades – and as the world population continues to grow toward 12 billion people (close to the projected maximum capacity of the planet), we will have to re-evaluate some of the assumptions that underlie our modern system of food production.

Not only are there environmental and cost concerns to our current system of agriculture, but there are also some alarm bells going off as to whether our current system is even growing enough food to feed the world. According to a recent announcement from the Global Harvest Initiative, the world needs to achieve a 25% increase in annual agricultural productivity – every year for the next forty years – in order to feed the expected population growth on our planet.

It’s estimated that the planet can sustain 10-12 billion people and we’re on course to reach that level in our lifetime. What happens next? It’s going to take some dramatic shifts in farming.

One answer could be urban farming. We are already seeing a few trends in this area as city dwellers have started planting micro-gardens, and the “locavore” movement to eat locally grown food for reasons of flavor and environmental concerns.

Locally grown food tastes fresher and burns far less fossil fuel than bananas shipped from South America to Chicago, or produce shipped from California to New York. (Locally grown food can be good for restaurateurs as well – according to a new study from the Penn State University School of Hospitality Management, restaurant customers are willing to pay 18% more for menu items made from locally-grown ingredients.)

But one of the biggest manifestations of urban farming is yet to arrive – “vertical farming.” According to this episode of Discovery Earth, a Columbia University study found that New York skyscrapers could be designed to grow crops and raise animals. A 30-story building potentially could feed 50,000 people a year. This new type of urban farming could reduce food costs and eliminate tons of fossil fuels from being burned and releasing carbon emissions into the atmosphere.

Skyscrapers may soon do for agriculture what they did for modern day urban housing. By creating a dense center of food production that is connected to the immediate community (and a vibrant local market for food), New York City could become one of the most productive farm areas in the United States.

Maybe that sounds crazy. But it wasn’t long ago that “green building” and energy efficient housing designs were looked upon with skepticism – and now these principles are becoming increasingly important and in-demand as businesses and homeowners look to cut their energy bills.

Which city in the world will be the first to pioneer the concept of vertical farming?

Rather than starting with 30-story skyscraper full of hydroponic plants and chicken coops, I think we’re going to see urban farming start out on a smaller and more intimate scale.

In the short-term, as skyscrapers and apartment buildings are increasingly being built with eco-friendly, energy-efficient designs and LEED certification, there is potential for urban farming to be an add-on to this trend. We can expect to see buildings that include rooftop gardens, chicken coops, tomato cages, herbs, spices, cucumbers, watermelons and other things that are easy to grow.

Urban farming is not just a thought exercise or something that’s nice to do for the environment – it could be a marketing advantage for real estate developers as well.

Marketing is all about differentiation – what can you offer the marketplace that’s different from your competitors? If you’re the owner of a building who is looking for high-end tenants, you need to find ways to differentiate one building from the next – especially in the current real estate market.

A lot of prospective tenants would find urban farming appealing, as it reflects the brand and values of their companies – many companies would rather rent space from a building that has LEED design, eco-friendly features, and maybe urban farming will be next on that list, not only because of the practicality of it, but because of the message it sends about their companies by being affiliated with that building.

We’re seeing this aspect of urban farming being applicable right now. We were consulting a hospital that would like to do more wellness and prevention programs, and they were interested in including urban farming as part of their new building design to help reinforce the message of healthier eating, get people more connected to where “real” food comes from, and create a holistic atmosphere of better health and natural living.

Urban farming is going to be a powerful trend over the next 5-10 years that will give new meaning to the term “locavore.” People are craving food that is authentic and connected to their local region, especially in the face of growing concerns about the environment, the cost of fossil fuels, and the health effects of processed and chemically treated foods.

It could be that with the rise of urban farming and an increased focus on locally grown food, we will start to see farmers becoming celebrities, just like the rise of celebrity chefs during the past 10 years with the Food Network. Organic farmer Joel Salatin of Polyface Farms of Shenandoa, VA has published several books and has a busy public speaking schedule – he is arguably America’s first “Celebrity Farmer“. He won’t be the last.

Whether it’s a 30-story skyscraper or a downtown farmer’s market, look for urban farming to grow as Americans become more interested in getting back to their culinary roots. Restaurants that embrace this trend and adapt their menus will reap big rewards.

One of the trends that we’re noting as part of our upcoming 2011 Trends Forecast is the rise of mobile kitchens. Due to a number of economic and social factors, mobile kitchens are one of the hottest restaurant trends that we see for 2011.

Of course, there have always been hot dog carts and the infamous “roach coach,” but we’re seeing something new – a more sophisticated breed of mobile kitchen, delivering a new twist on the concept of mobile food service, with specialized ingredients, fresh flavors, and tightly focused menus.

The tale of Kogi

One of the first restaurateurs to get national publicity from this new wave of mobile kitchens was Kogi BBQ, a mobile kitchen selling Korean/Mexican cuisine in L.A.

Kogi became one of the most popular food phenomena in Southern California by putting a new twist on an old favorite – the taco.

By serving up $2 tacos made with Korean barbecue sauces and finely diced peppers, cabbage, citrus and spices, they created something new and oddly authentic to the culturally diverse environment of Los Angeles. And people were standing in line for two hours, outdoors, to buy these tacos. Even in the depths of the recession during 2009, Kogi was a hit.

Social media and mobile kitchens: An ideal pair

Of course, Kogi’s success didn’t happen overnight. When they first got started, driving their Korean barbecue taco wagons into the neighborhoods of L.A., people were laughing at their food trucks, spitting at them, even flashing gang signs at them.

But once people started to taste Kogi’s tacos, and saw the quality of the food, the cleanliness of the preparation, and the uniqueness of the presentation, it started to take off. And one of the biggest factors in Kogi’s success was social media.

By using Twitter to broadcast their trucks’ locations and announce where they were going to be serving food an any given night, Kogi turned buying a $2 taco into a part-scavenger hunt, part-social event. (Kogi BBQ currently has over 77,000 followers on Twitter – all ready to pounce when a Kogi truck rolls into their neighborhood.)

When a new restaurant concept finds success in social media, traditional media is likely to follow. Kogi has been featured on CNN, and NBC recently announced that Kogi BBQ will be one of the contestants on a new show with mobile kitchens racing across the country in a contest to see who can get the most sales. This kind of mass media exposure is going to do a lot to promote mobile kitchens from the consumer perspective; once people get more familiar with the idea, we’re going to see one of these mobile kitchens starting up in every city in the country.

Does this trend have staying power?

In a word, yes. Mobile kitchens are well-suited to the current economic climate of the restaurant industry, and I see them having some potential staying power – if handled the right way.

There are several broader trends powering the growth potential of mobile kitchens:

1. A more profitable unit economic model: It used to be that to get started in the restaurant business you needed $1 million and would be happy with a 1:1 sales to investment ratio. With mobile kitchens, the cost of entry can be as low as $100,000 and the sales to investment ratio as high as 5:1.

2. Self-contained: Even if you want to start a simple quick service sandwich franchise, you need to build a place, put in fixtures, wallpaper, restrooms, and 30-40% of your investment can never be recouped, even if you were to go out of business the very next day. Mobile kitchens are self-contained and can be moved or repossessed in full – this makes them easier to finance. Even after the credit crisis, we’re currently seeing financing of up to 100% for mobile kitchens.

3. Location strategy: With a mobile kitchen, you don’t need a location strategy in the traditional sense; you’re not limited to any one location or dependent on foot traffic – if your location doesn’t work, you pick up and move on to the next one.

4. Novelty: At least for now, mobile kitchens are so interesting to see (outside of a place like New York or L.A.) that they have built-in marketing and are a buzz-worthy, newsworthy concept when they roll into town.

5. Digital Marketing: Kogi BBQ got famous by being an early adopter of social media. Newsweek was looking for examples of companies that were successfully using Twitter to promote their businesses. Kogi was featured in Newsweek, which then led to more interviews about their social media strategy, which in turn led to more customers, both with the publicity and increases in their Twitter following. It became self perpetuating. Now Kogi can be used as an example not just of use of social media, but the power of restaurant PR when done right (being an early adopter, giving good interviews, having a compelling story, etc), and also, of course, as an example of a highly successful mobile kitchen. The publicity wave continues and now Kogi has inspired a reality show (of which it will also be a star).

6. Franchises: There’s a tremendous opportunity to start franchising mobile kitchens. One of the keys to franchising is that the concept has to be very easy to execute, and not overly complex in terms of equipment or skills. A mobile kitchen with a short menu, limited ingredients, and a fully self-contained kitchen that doesn’t require many staff or much complexity in the operations could be the ideal franchise of the future. (For more on this, refer to my blog post on Culinary Trends: http://aaronallen.com/blog-post/trends/culinary-branding-thought-starters/)

Other thoughts on how to do mobile kitchens the “right way:”

• Be inventive. Don’t do a mobile kitchen as usual – don’t make it a simple “hot dog truck.” Some skeptics would say that mobile kitchens are nothing new, but I would argue – if you look at what Kogi BBQ has done in L.A., this is a higher level of sophistication than we’ve seen before from this kind of restaurant. Mobile kitchens in 2011 will be offering a relevant, contemporary “cool” new taste and customer experience, both in terms of the design and the way it’s marketed. Kogi BBQ is the ideal platform: they have a cool-looking truck, sophisticated marketing, and they’ve used social media to their best advantage.

• Specialize. To be profitable, these mobile kitchens need to be highly specialized in what they serve, compared to other categories. A typical fast food restaurant might have 15-20 items on the menu, and a casual dining restaurant might have 55 menu items. These trucks should have 5 items on the menu (or less!) – to keep it simple in operations and execution.

• Offer a signature flavor. Kogi BBQ has a really unique flavor profile. They’ve practiced and honed their recipe – their owner says “it’s like practicing violin for 1,000 hours just to play one note.” But people keep coming back because it’s a flavor that they can’t get anywhere else – plus there’s the whole experience of hunting down the Kogi truck, waiting in line with your fellow fans – they’ve taken buying a taco and turned it into a rock concert.

• Don’t be afraid to innovate. People who innovate usually get laughed at. Most of the best products and companies were not the result of a focus group – too much consensus can be a bad thing. People looking to start a successful mobile kitchen in 2011 should find something to offer that allows them to be the sole source provider. The first mobile kitchen in Tulsa or Boise or Peoria or Columbus might get laughed at – at first. But I think the concept that Kogi BBQ pioneered in L.A. can work nationwide – and that’s why mobile kitchens are on my list of the top restaurant trends of 2011.

We can help.

We believe in being early adopters of emerging trends that will be sustainable for the long haul – and we believe that mobile kitchens are one of the big emerging trends for 2011. We believe in helping our clients create new concepts to adapt to the seismic shifts in consumer dining habits and restaurant unit economic models of recent years.

If you were creating a restaurant concept 5-8 years ago, you would be planning it with economic models which are no longer as relevant or appealing (both for investors and for prospective franchisees). We can deliver turnkey mobile kitchen concepts with complete branding, positioning, business planning, marketing, menus, and training – everything you need to get rolling.

Stay Tuned for our 2011 Restaurant Industry Trends forecast, coming soon…

We are seeing dozens of very interesting restaurant industry trends shaping up which would make for fascinating feature articles.  Here are a few bullet points of ideas.  Please let me know if any catch your interest:

1.    Middle East Growth – Currently 1% of the GDP of Saudi Arabia comes from the restaurant industry.  That is expected to multiply to 5% of GDP within less than a decade.  By comparison, the US market is currently around 4% and was at 1% in the 1950′s.  In other words, Saudi Arabia will grow in 10 years to the level it took our market 50 years to get to.  Staggering growth which presents equally impressive opportunities and challenges.

2.    Small Boxes – The techniques that were applied to manufacturing over the years after the Industrial Age to make it more efficient are being applied to the restaurant industry.  Essentially, a restaurant manufactures food.  Industrial engineering is being applied and one resulting trend is “shrinking the box” – making a restaurant more efficient through compression of size, staff and menu focus.

4.    Foreign Invasions - The Dollar is on a discount right now and foreign restaurant companies are seeking their piece of the American restaurant pie.  The US is by far the worlds largest restaurant market (we do more in restaurant revenues than some G20 nations have total GDP).  Restaurant companies from the UK, Italy, Philippines, Africa, etc are planting flags on our soil with plans to grow in to top national chains here.

5.    Who’s Running Social Media – It used to be that an angry customer would tell 10 people.  Today, that same customer can Tweet 10,000+ people from their table!  Social Media is growing at staggering rates and our industry seems ill-equipped to handle it.  While some restaurant organizations are embracing social media as a means of promotion, they are caught flat-footed when complaints and short-comings go viral.  Many chains have put interns in charge of social media; a move they would never consider for other more traditional media such as their advertising or public relations efforts.  This is a fundamentally flawed approach.

6.    “Fresh” is Industry’s Most Bankable Word – Fresh is a magic word in restaurant marketing today. It conjures the most positive associations for consumers.  American’s are not yet ready to eat “healthy”, but they will eat foods that are perceived as “healthful”.  Foods that are fresh are implied to be more healthful. This concept ties in to a number of other emerging trends such as the locavore movement, organic, raw foods diet, etc.  Subway has built a highly successful marketing program around its “Eat Fresh” campaign.  Wendy’s recently launched a $75m campaign around ‘fresh’.  Season’s 52, a Darden Restaurants concept, learned early on that ‘healthy’ food was rejected by mainstream consumers, but fresh was lovingly embraced.  As it stands today, “fresh” is one of the most bankable words in restaurant marketing.

7.    Authenticity – The world’s most valuable brand, Coca-Cola, is The Real Thing.  Genuine.  Or, in other words, “authentic”.  The rise of programs such as Anthony Bourdain’s No Reservations are paving the way for more authenticity in food.  In fact, today’s average consumer is far more educated than any previous generation when it comes to food and food culture.  Tex-Mex has declined while authentic Mexican food has grown.  Examples of this are found in the birth of chains such as Rosa Mexicana or the increasing fame and following of Rick Bayless.  To highlight the shift that has occurred, one could point to the rise in popularity of sushi.  In the 1970′s few would have predicted that raw fish would catch on in middle America and micropolitan markets.  Today, nearly every town in America has a popular sushi joint.  Sushi started and remained “authentic”.  Now, consumers are seeking out more adventurous, educated and likely to seek out authentic offerings.

8.    Intellectual Property – The legal war of the future for the restaurant industry will be in the genre of Intellectual Property.  Moving beyond trademarks for logos, battles will spring up over infringement of recipes, menu item names, trade secrets, and more.  An industry that has long allowed copycats to get away with infringements will start to fight and protect more than ever before.  Intellectual Property is one of the fastest growing areas of law and is influencing sweeping changes in nearly every industry.  Intellectual Property laws and practices will soon greatly alter how the restaurant industry conceives and protects its ideas and other non-tangible assets.

Having represented thousands of restaurants in dozens of countries spread across six continents, we have seen a lot.  We keep our finger on the pulse of the restaurant industry.  The above story ideas are only a few of the important trends we see shaping up in the restaurant industry.  If you are interested in any of the above story ideas or are looking for a source for another upcoming assignment, it would be our pleasure to help you.  We will provide you sources not limited to ourselves or our clients but help you in any way possible to get the story you are after.  It is our goal to become a trusted and go-to resource for you for years to come.

Looking forward to hearing from you!  www.twitter.com/qmg

To schedule an interview, please contact Kristin Thistle at 407-668-5352 or kt@aaronallen.com